College football odds, picks and prediction for Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals. Week 9 betting free pick and game analysis.
With a possible spot in the ACC Title game on the line, Duke's uncertainty at QB comes to the forefront as Riley Leonard is banged up. Will that be the advantage the Cardinals need to get the win and cover the spread at home?The Duke Blue Devils and Louisville Cardinals face off in a surprisingly important ACC clash this Saturday.
Duke enters this matchup at 5-2, following a loss last week to conference-leading Florida State. Riley Leonard did start that game despite suffering a high ankle sprain just three weeks prior, and the Blue Devils actually took a 20-17 lead into halftime. That’s something Louisville is certainly capable of. The Cardinals rank 18th in the country allowing just 3.1 yards per carry and rank 39th in defensive success rate against the rush, as well as 27th in defensive success rate overall.
Louisville also has a strong ground game behind Jawhar Jordan, who rushes for 7.4 yards per carry. Overall the ranks eighth in EPA/rush and 10th in rushing offensive success rate. And if there is somewhere you can attack this Duke defense it’s on the ground. He clearly reaggravated his high-ankle sprain against Florida State and once he left the game in the second half, the Duke offense couldn’t move the football and didn’t score in the second half. Backup quarterback Henry Belin went just 1-6 in relief of Leonard. It makes me think if Leonard can’t go the Cards, who already have a good run defense, will sell out to make Belin beat them with his arm. I’m betting that doesn’t work and I’m adding Duke to go Under its team total of 19.
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