Payments on California homes have surged, with the typical home purchase today costing $4,000 monthly compared to $2,020 in 2018. To return to pre-coronavirus affordability levels, mortgage rates would need to fall to 3.5%, incomes would need to surge 50%, or home prices would need to drop 33%. This affordability issue has led to a 33% decline in home sales this year compared to 2018.
My trusty spreadsheet compared home-price increases with income growth for 10 large California metropolitan areas using housing indexes by ICE, a mortgage-tech firm, and pay stats from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.In 2018, payments on the typical $509,400 home purchase ran $2,020 monthly with an average 4.3% mortgage rate, assuming a 20% downpayment.Then, contemplate the payment on today’s $759,500 median-priced home. The payment doubled to $4,000 monthly with 6.9% rates.
This lack of affordability is why one-third fewer California homes will be sold this year than in 2018.Remember that the housing market was upended by several things during the pandemic: a demand for more living space, mortgage rates under 3% and stimulus checks boosting incomes. In eight of these 10 California metros, home-price gains outpaced incomes. Here’s how they ranked by the gap …65% home gain vs. 37% income growth.Ventura County:46% home gain vs. 35% income growth.And in two California metros, incomes beat home prices …26% home gains topped by 46% income growth.Price gains in the 12 months ending in October were significantly smaller than the previous five-year appreciation pace in all but one of the 10 metros.
San Jose was the lone spot without a dip in appreciation. Its 5.1% year’s gain was a smidgen above the 5% yearly increases of 2018-23.3.5% year’s gain vs. averaging 9.8% annual increases in 2018-23 – 6.3 points cooler.4.1% year’s gain vs. up 9.4% annually in 2018-23 – 5.3 points cooler.3.3% year’s gain vs. up 7.9% yearly in 2018-23 – 4.7 points cooler.Los Angeles-Orange County:1.3% year’s gain vs. up 4.4% annually in 2018-23 – 3.1 points cooler.
California Home Affordability Mortgage Rates Home Prices Income Growth Home Sales
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