Market Overview Analysis by Michael Kramer covering: USD/CAD, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average. Read Michael Kramer's latest article on Investing.com
small business data, and the data in this report can give us one last preview of what the CPI report on Wednesday may hold. Right now, the expectations for Wednesday’s CPI report are relatively low for the, with analysts estimating a 0.1% m/m gain, down from 0.3% in April. Meanwhile, CPI y/y is expected to rise by 3.4%, which aligns with April.Of course, the Fed meeting will occur later that day.
So when talking about the equity market not caring about rate cuts, be careful—it isn’t that the equity market doesn’t care. It would seem that the equity market just never came into agreement with the bond market’s viewpoint. Even now, sell-side analysts are still looking for two rate cuts in 2024. I would expect that after this week, even fewer sell-side will be seeing rate cuts because my best guess from listening to the Fed speakers is that the median dots were almost split between two and three rate cuts in March and are likely to be split between 0 and 1 rate cut in June and that the longer-term run rate is likely to move higher.and hot wage data call into question, I think, where monetary policy is. I know that there has been plenty on social media about how bad the data was.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reached the 100% extension off the lows witnessed in March 2023 and appears to have formed an ending diagonal triangle. If the 2-year does break out to the upside and the USD/CAD moves higher, then it seems like the odds for a significant pullback in the S&P 500 could happen, finally.
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