A circuit breaker could change the course of the epidemic and buy to time, a report says.
A two-week circuit breaker at the end of October may halve Covid deaths in the UK between now and the end of the year, says a scientific report.
The researchers said this "buys more time to put other controls in place" but there is huge uncertainty.The point of a mini-lockdown, or circuit breaker, is to break transmission of the virus by introducing a fixed period of strict measures that stop us mixing with other people.Instead of the epidemic powering ahead, it would be thrown into reverse. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies estimates it could rewind the clock by 28 days.
The unpublished mathematical models attempt to calculate how locking down between 24 October and 7 November would change the course of the epidemic. This would coincide with school half terms. They also run the numbers on a range of options similar to the full lockdown in April and May through to the milder restrictions in place in June.However, the highest numbers are highly unlikely to happen, say the researchers.
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