Of the many coronavirus metrics rising in California, one of the most troubling is the rate in which coronavirus test results are now coming back positive.
A Times data analysis found that as of Friday, 5.7% of coronavirus test results in California over the preceding seven days came back positive, a rate not seen since early May. A week ago, the rate was 4.7%, a rate that had been largely stable for June until just Sunday, when there was a dramatic shift in the numbers.
On Sunday, the rate of coronavirus tests confirming infection over the previous seven days in California was up to 4.8%. The next day, it was 4.9%. By Tuesday, it was 5.3%, and on Friday, it was 5.7%.Rural Imperial County, one of the nation’s most important agricultural areas east of San Diego, now has the highest test positivity rate of any county in the state, with a seven-day average of 23% — well over the 8% rate that causes particular concern among state officials.
Conditions were also deteriorating Friday in San Bernardino County. Officials there said local hospitals are beginning to reach “surge capacity” because of new coronavirus cases, meaning they are getting close to hitting their licensed limits for theThey stressed that there is still room for more patients but said the system is becoming stressed. The county said it would consider opening alternate care sites for patients if hospitals fill up.
“At the end of the day, it’s really not telling us for sure what’s happening in the community,” said Ron Brookmeyer, a biostatistician and dean at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. “A falling positivity rate could be reflecting just that there’s a skew now, a shifting of who’s coming in for testing.”
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