Column: High-flying zinc shrugs off European smelter restarts

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Column: High-flying zinc shrugs off European smelter restarts
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The company, controlled by global trade house Trafigura, said improved market conditions and the reinstatement of a Dutch energy cost assistance scheme will allow the plant to restart later this month, albeit not at full annual capacity of 315,000 metric tons.

Zinc is being buoyed by the broader flow of investment money into the base metals sector. But the zinc narrative has also changed with focus shifting from smelter constraints to mine supply issues. This is the culmination of two years of falling mine production. Global mine output shrank by 2.3% in 2022 and by another 1.2% in 2023, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group .

The sharp downgrade to global output explains why ILZSG has cut its expected supply surplus for 2024 from a glut of 367,000 tons to a much more marginal 56,000 tons. The LME zinc price slumped from a record high of $4,896 per ton in March 2022 to a low of $2,215 in May 2023, leaving a trail of price casualties in its wake.

Swedish producer Boliden, for example, has been negotiating with unions at its Tara mine in Ireland on a new contract that would pave the way for resuming operations after a year of inactivity.ILZSG estimates European zinc mine production fell by 6.2% in 2023 and is forecasting another 7.9% slide this year due to the closure of Tara and the Aljustrel mine in Portugal.

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