Heading into Week 5, Heather Dinich picks the CFP field of 12 and the eight teams on the bubble, then ranks the best of the Group of 5.
The biggest difference with the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff this season -- aside from the bigger bracket -- is the guaranteed inclusion of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Which means Michigan isn't out because it lost to Texas. And USC isn't out because it lost to Michigan. And LSU isn't out because it lost to USC.
The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second highest-ranked conference champion behind Texas. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has the best chance to win the Big Ten . The Buckeyes have at least a 60% chance to win each remaining game, but road trips to Oregon and Penn State will define the Big Ten race.
The winner of Saturday's game against Louisville will see its chance to reach the playoff climb to around 50%, but if Notre Dame loses? The Irish's playoff hopes will nosedive to 11%. No Week 5 game will have a greater impact on the CFP race, according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers outscored UCLA 17-0 in the second half last week and outgained the Bruins 244-89 in the final two quarters. If LSU continues to improve, it might hit its stride when it matters most -- October. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU will lose all three October games and start November with a loss to Alabama.
With road wins against Houston and Kansas, the Rebels are starting to build a résumé the committee will respect. UNLV now has a 16% chance to reach the playoff, but that can increase with opportunities against Fresno State, Syracuse, Oregon State and Boise State.
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