One of the most fascinating decisions of the next year has to do with the 49ers' plan at quarterback, where Brock Purdy still has doubters.
Louis Riddick and Tim Hasselbeck explain why San Francisco holds all the power over Brandon Aiyuk despite his recent trade request. , with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:, they signed the Iowa State product to a four-year, $3.7 million contract. He was guaranteed just $77,008, roughly 0.2% of what No. 1 overall pickthat doesn't seem to be there with other quarterbacks producing at his level.
The fact Purdy was also playing at a high level as a rookie before improving even further in his first full season as a starter seems like it should help his case. If we expand our group out to players with at least 150 pass attempts in a season who posted ANY/A+ marks of 120 or more in each of their first two campaigns, the list would be two people long: Marino and Purdy. Include Year 3, and you add six more players who accomplished it twice in their first three campaigns.
I'm not sure this trope really holds up, to be honest. The quarterback who ranked third in these spots over the past two years by EPA per dropback is Garoppolo, who spent part of that time with the Patriots. The guy between him and Garoppolo is Tagovailoa.
While Purdy has posted a 6% interception rate when trailing so far as a pro, Tagovailoa is at 3% over that same timeframe, while Stroud didn't throw a single interception while playing from behind during his rookie campaign. The league as a whole throws interceptions on about 2.4% of their pass attempts while playing from behind, so while we're only talking about a 149-pass sample, this is a problem for Purdy.
Next Gen Stats also splits the separation rates up into buckets, which gives us some further insight. More than 47% of Purdy's throws are to open receivers , which is well above the league average of 43.4%. It's the seventh-highest mark in football. At the same time, though, just 21.2% of Purdy's passes are to wide-open receivers , which is 25th in the league over the past two years.
The way the 49ers use their personnel does make life easier for Purdy. In a league where more and more teams use light boxes, the presence of Kittle, McCaffrey and fullbackas potential eligibles scares teams away from getting their players out of the box. Just 57.4% of Purdy's dropbacks over the past two years have come against a light box, the lowest rate for any quarterback.Yes.
Is that a reason to tap the breaks? Not necessarily. Let's normalize every team's passing yardage as if they received average performance from their receivers after the catch to try and minimize the impact of that data boosting the 49ers' quarterbacks up the charts. Would they still be as efficient if we bring their YAC totals back to earth?
Unlike other quarterbacks who might have been coddled in comfortable systems and struggled to thrive when the situation isn't perfect, I'd argue Purdy's a little riskier and rambunctious than other passers in that archetype.
With that being said, Purdy hasn't needed the full complement of stars to make the offense work. When he has had McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle all on the field at the same time, he has posted a 71.9 QBR. When at least one of those guys has been missing, he ... has actually been slightly better, sporting a 72.9 QBR. He has only had the big four together at the same time for about half of his dropbacks, so he needs to excel when at least one of his key playmakers are off the field.
The 49ers made what might be the best draft pick since Mahomes when they landed Purdy, but it's not going to be as easy for them to build through the draft. One of the biggest mistakes of the Lynch-Shanahan era might be the thing that keeps them from winning a Super Bowl with Purdy on a rookie deal.Jeff Darlington and Mike Tannenbaum concur that the 49ers should do everything they can to keep Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco amid rumors he could be traded to the Bills.
We can't envision exactly what a San Francisco team would look like had it held onto those picks, but we can see the impact of how it forces the franchise to spend elsewhere. Instead of having a second pass rusher to play alongside Bosa, whenstruggled early in his career, the 49ers spent big to add Hargrave in free agency. Wanting a second edge rusher, they.
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