From Breakingviews - Microsoft’s Activision sweet talk
Unlike the European Commission, whichto approve the deal, and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, which is opposed but has a mixed success rate, a CMA block would likely be fatal. So Microsoft pressed its case, submitting data that the agency says shows it has no incentive to yank Activision’s games from rival consoles to its Xbox.
The CMA isn't yet comfortable that Microsoft won't dominate the nascent market for streaming games, or said it’s warmed to behavioral remedies, like promises to license games to competitors, that are crucial to the parties’ case for the deal. And its determinations are still provisional and subject to change.
Still, Microsoft’s arguments gaining traction is welcome news to merger arbitrageurs. Assuming Activision’s shares would fall to the $62 price estimated by JPMorgan analysts if the tie-up fails, Friday’s market reaction indicates the implied odds of a successful close moved up from roughly a coin-toss to around two-thirds. Not a lock, but moving in the right direction.
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