As the People's Republic looks set to lose the title of World’s Most Populous Nation to India, some are wondering whether the next China is to be found there, or Indonesia, or Mexico. Yet demographic doom is not certain, says petesweeneypro
Sun Yan, 25, poses for her two children in her barbershop on the outskirts of Shanghai, China June 3, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song
HONG KONG, Jan 18 - For decades foreign companies and investors flocked to the People’s Republic seeking cheap labour, new markets and, for some, weaker protections for workers and the environment. As the country looks set toof World’s Most Populous Nation to India, some capitalists are wondering whether the next China is to be found there, or Indonesia, or Mexico. Yet China’s demographic doom is not certain.
The country’s population contracted by 850,000 last year, and United Nations forecasters now project it will shed 109 million people by 2050. While most East Asian societies are also aging, China’s declining birth and marriage rates imply a quiet vote of no-confidence in the future – and an indictment of official attempts to micromanage family sizes.
Before the pandemic, the main national pension fund was projected to be insolvent by 2035. Underinvestment in the safety net means Chinese couples must support grandparents plus offspring. An analysis by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences showed low-income families in the city spend more than two-thirds of their income on their only child. Social pressure to consume conspicuously and work endless office hours runs contrary to the sacrifices implicit in child-rearing.
However, technically nothing stops this authoritarian government, overseeing the world’s most powerful export engine with vast financial reserves plus stakes in state enterprises holding an estimated $30 trillion in assets, from delivering more equitable distribution of wealth and better social services. An aging labour force’scan be upgraded with automation and artificial intelligence. Encouraging immigration would also help.
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