Bond yields continued to rise on Monday as traders assessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pivot later in the year after an unexpectedly strong...
Bond yields continued to rise on Monday as traders assessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pivot later in the year after an unexpectedly strong jobs report.
What’s happeningWhat’s driving markets Markets were caught by surprise by Friday’s data showing a 517,000 surge in nonfarm payrolls, as well as a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4%, a new cycle low. There also was data from the services sector, as a poll of purchasing managers jumped in January.
Strategists... Bond yields continued to rise on Monday as traders assessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pivot later in the year after an unexpectedly strong jobs report. What’s happening What’s driving markets Markets were caught by surprise by Friday’s data showing a 517,000 surge in nonfarm payrolls, as well as a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4%, a new cycle low. There also was data from the services sector, as a poll of purchasing managers jumped in January.
Strategists at Barclays are recommending investors being short the front-end of the curve. “Incoming data suggests that the U.S. economy is faring well, which increases the likelihood of the Fed remaining at the peak rate of 5.1% for longer. With the markets pricing in about 40bp cuts in H2 from the peak, which itself can move a touch higher, we believe there is still room for the front-end to cheapen,” they told clients.
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