Bitcoin price history shows that May is a challenging month for Bitcoin during mid-term election years, with analysts debating whether it could happen again in 2026.
Some analysts argue that a comparatively broadened, institutionalized buyer base for crypto today may prevent a repeat of the drawdowns seen in May 2018 and May 2022.
Crypto analysts are divided over whether markets will see a major Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during US mid-term election years. In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 by the end of the month. It happened again in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before falling further in June to $20,000.
With 2026 also a bear market year coinciding with a US mid-term election, there are concerns it could happen again.
“The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years.
Bitcoin dumps. Every time,” crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaarthere would be a higher probability of a new capitulation phase if Bitcoin remains under $78,000, with bears “showing signs of strength. ”The calendar didn’t cause previous crashes, analyst argues Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that midterm election years have coincided with major Bitcoin bear markets, “so some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as another ‘sell in May’ setup.
” However, behind that historical seasonality were more concrete macro drivers, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening and the Terra/FTX collapses, he said. Ko said he doesn’t expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles because the market structure has fundamentally changed.
“Spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act moving through Congress have meaningfully broadened and institutionalized the buyer base compared with past cycles,” he added. “In my view, a move toward the mid-$60k or high-$50k range could be defensible under a macro shock or a significant ETF outflow cascade. But a move back to $33k would likely require something genuinely systemic to break, rather than simply a repeat of historical seasonality.
”on X Sunday that the current Bitcoin price action “doesn’t shout for new lows” but is “consolidating after a run of 40%. ” However, an important support level that is currently preventing a larger decline is the $76,000 area, he cautioned.
“If that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,” he said. Marcel Pechman
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