The European Central Bank is set for a major move: an interest rate cut in June.
This decision, backed by top officials like ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau, even has hawks like Klaas Knot and Joachim Nagel on board. What does this mean for the euro? Expect EUR/USD to face a downward slide in the second half of 2024? Since 2000, the yearly range of EUR/USD has typically exceeded 1100 pips, except in 2019 and 2023, when it was below 1000 pips. Since 2012, the range has not surpassed 2000 pips.
org The Fed is expected to delay rate cuts, and the market no longer anticipates a cut in July. This could widen the rate differential between the US and Europe, potentially causing funds to flow to the US and weakening the euro. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.4 in May 2024, a 15-month high, signalling a positive trend for the EU economy. An ECB rate cut is expected to boost the PMI further.
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