'Is Obama toast?' read the headline of a 2011 New York Times polling piece.
, the Biden campaign is responding to Democrats' apocalyptic fears by fishing out past examples of winning candidates defying early expectations — includingA year out from the 2024 election, campaign officials are battling negative polls and doomsday narratives as much as they are Biden's Republican rivals.: Pundits are underestimating Biden, just as they have with countless others who experienced polling dips before prevailing on Election Day.
Ignore the horse-race headlines: Swing-state voters overwhelmingly trust Trump over Biden on the economy, immigration, foreign policy and national security. They also have deep concerns about Biden's age, a weakness that — unlike the economy, for example — can't be assuaged through time and policy. "Among all the unpredictables there is one thing that is sure: The age arrow only points in one direction," Axelrod warned.Biden maintains advantages on abortion and "democracy," the two issues that helped propel Democrats' poll-defying performance in the midterms — and which the Biden campaign is counting on to crystallize the choice voters will face in 2024.
Another Democratic over-performance could bolster the campaign's case for optimism — and the argument that votes, not polls, are the only metric that matters.Share on linkedin
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