This article analyzes the upcoming basketball game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Utah Utes, highlighting betting trends and key factors influencing the outcome. It explores the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, particularly Kansas' offensive struggles and Utah's tendency to struggle against tougher competition.
The No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks (17-7, 8-5 Big 12) are looking to win back-to-back games for the first time in nearly a month as they travel to Salt Lake City to face the Utah Utes (13-11, 5-8 Big 12). Both teams have been trending towards the Under in this type of situation. I'm betting on that trend to continue. Although Kansas has fallen off this year, Bill Self's team still ranks 10th overall in KenPom and boasts one of the best defenses (fifth in adjusted efficiency) in the country.
What's holding them back, and why is there a sense of negativity? The offense. Kansas ranks just 41st in adjusted efficiency, and it's the primary reason why it is being questioned as a serious title contender. There's a glaring deficiency in getting to the line (273rd in free throw attempt rate per Haslametrics), and its ranking of 199th in offensive rebounds per game (10.5) means a lack of easy buckets. Kansas ranks 133rd in BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency since January 13. They take a lot of threes (25.5 per game) but don't convert at a high clip (215th in 3-point percentage vs. the average opponent per Haslametrics), and they're miserable from the stripe (third-worst free throw percentage at 62%). Utah, on the other hand, leads the country in assist rate and prefers to get easy looks at the rim (42nd in near-proximity attempt rate) or open shots from distance. The problem is, that plays right into Kansas’ strengths defensively — the Jayhawks rank 23rd in near-proximity defense and fourth in three-point defense. The Jayhawks excel when players like Hunter Dickinson get open looks down low, leading the nation in near-proximity field goal percentage. The Utes are one of the biggest teams in the nation and rank second in near-proximity defense, so they appear well-poised to mitigate Kansas’ damage at the rim. Although Utah plays with pace, it has gone just 6-9 O/U at the Jon M. Huntsman Center. Kansas, meanwhile, is 2-6 O/U on the road and likely won’t push the pace more than normal since this game is at altitude. Combine these teams’ records and it comes out to 8-15 O/U, so I’m betting on another Under coming through on Saturday. To say that Utah hasn’t handled stepping up in competition might be an understatement. Craig Smith’s squad ranks second to last in Evan Miya’s opponent adjustment metric, meaning they’ve performed worse than just about any other team when facing tougher competition. The Utes were blown out 61-76 at home by Baylor. Before that, Houston dismantled them 36-70. Iowa State (59-82), Texas Tech (65-93), and Baylor again (56-81) all resulted in lopsided results. Every time Utah has faced a tough opponent, the outcome has been brutal. That could change at home against a Kansas team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games, but I’ll need to see it before I believe it
Kansas Jayhawks Utah Utes College Basketball Betting Trends Underdog Offensive Struggles Opponent Adjustment
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