Be careful what you wish for: The S&P 500 typically falls after the first rate cut

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Be careful what you wish for: The S&P 500 typically falls after the first rate cut
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The broad market index has historically pulled back after the central bank's initial rate decrease, data shows.

Investors have long been hoping that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, but data shows that that outcome could create trouble for the equity market. On average, the S & P 500 is usually up 2% 65 days before the first cut from the central bank following a hiking cycle, according to data from Strategas. But it's usually down by 1.5% 65 days after that initial rate reduction, implying that stocks may not be off to the races after the big announcement.

Fed funds futures indicate a chance of at least one rate cut as early as September, with the potential for a second at the last meeting of the year in December, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool . Hopes for lower rates in the near term were lifted last week as data on consumer and wholesaler inflation showed indications of cooling. May's consumer price index came in flat from the prior month, while wholesale prices unexpectedly slipped 0.2%.

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