BEV sales were first electric driver conquest in the past. In 2023 many BEV drivers will look for replacement. That is a new type of market.
For our European readers, this is not news, but for many of our North American readers, this is still a bit of a mystery. Two-thirds of Dutch new car sales are company cars of the benefit in kind type. These normally have a contract period of 3 to 4 years. After that period, the employee has to order a new BiK vehicle. “So what,” I hear you thinking.
The special incentive that caused the spike was for a five-year tax benefit. Some drivers will try to hold onto their vehicles to enjoy the tax benefit longer, but many will be forced to order a new one. For the leasing companies, a used car with one or two years remaining of high tax benefit is far more valuable than a five-year-old car without a tax benefit.
It is not only the replacement market that will push the BEV market. There is also the wish of the government to have all BiK sales 100% BEV by 2025. That will push the leashing companies to push the dealers to try to get all BiK drivers into a BEV. I am afraid to make a prediction for 2025. But if the government succeeds in making all BiK sales 100% electric in 2025, and at least a third of the private sales also BEV, we are looking at between 70% and 80% market share.
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