This article takes a close look at AUD/USD, offering an analysis that considers both its technical and fundamental components, and underscores the critical drivers that FX traders should watch in the near term.
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In the realm of fundamentals, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, fueled by the remarkable resilience of the U.S. economy, and the Fed’s determination to keep interest rates high for an extended period of time in pursuit of price stability create a difficult and rather hostile environment for the Aussie.
Any escalation of the Israeli-Hamas clash could raise the geopolitical temperature in the region, especially if it draws in other actors like Iran. This scenario could lead to episodes of flight to safety and increased market turbulence, triggering a sell-off in riskier currencies. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and spark a bearish reversal, initial support lies at 0.6350, but further losses may be in store on a push below this threshold, with the next downside target located in the 0.6300/0.6285 range. Further down the line, the focus shifts to last year’s low near 0.6170.
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