Democrats have reason to feel cautiously optimistic about retaining control of the Senate
that it may be more tenuous than it looks:
Most of the remaining vote is the mail ballots that were returned to the state near the election, including on Election Day, along with provisional ballots. These days, mail and provisional ballots are typically good for Democrats. But this is not a normal case. A large majority of voters cast ballots by mail in Arizona, so the mail ballots are not nearly as favorable toward Democrats. Instead, a strange pattern has emerged in recent years: Democrats mail in their ballots well ahead of the election, leaving Republicans to turn in their ballots near the election or simply prefer to vote in person. In 2020, Donald J.
Nevada is even fuzzier. Catherine Cortez Masto, viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat in the Senate going into Tuesday, is trailing her opponent, Adam Laxalt, by 2.7 points, or 23,000 votes. But a huge question mark looms over the numbers: How many mail-in ballots, which skew heavily Democratic in the state, have yet to be counted? As Nevada election guru Jon Ralston, that number will determine her chances of making a comeback.
“There may be as many as 100,000 mail ballots to be counted. Democrats generally have won the mail ballots in Clark by 2:1. It’s not over yet here in Nevada.”
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