Apple stock rises as Morgan Stanley names it Top Pick ahead of iPhone 16 launch
) stock edged 2% higher in premarket trading Monday after Morgan Stanley analysts upgraded it to a Top Pick and raised the price target from $216 to $273.
Based on their analysis of Apple's upgradeable iPhone base, upgrade rates, new user growth, and model mix, Apple is poised to ship nearly 500 million iPhones over the next two years—235 million in the fiscal year 2025 and 262 million in FY26. Their conviction in the upgrade cycle is supported by several unprecedented factors in Apple's history: an installed base of over 1.3 billion devices, extended replacement cycles averaging 4.8 years, and a new technology limited to just 8% of the iPhone/iPad installed base.
The analysts forecast that in FY25 and FY26, 66-69% of iPhones shipped will be new models, which is 2-6 points higher than FY24 and 3 points above the previous peak in FY22, leading to 4-5% annual iPhone ASP growth.
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