Analysis: The two problems with the assumption that the economy will boost Trump in 2020
President Trump gives a thumbs up as his motorcade arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., as he heads to Minnesota to tout the 2017 tax law. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow April 17 at 4:56 PM Jim Messina was Barack Obama’s campaign manager in 2012 when the former president won reelection. On Wednesday, Messina spoke with ABC News’ Jonathan Karl about the reelection bid of Obama’s successor.
This is a somewhat baffling comment. It suggests that Sanders’s rhetoric won’t be able to match Trump’s on economic issues, which seems detached from what we know about each candidate. But it also leverages a consistent argument that we’ve heard elsewhere: The strength of the economy generally will make Trump hard to beat.Consider Trump’s most recent effort to leverage the economy to his political benefit in a tweet responding to Sanders’s town-hall interview on Fox News.
As with many other places, though, Bethlehem’s current economic position is the continuation of a trend that began before Trump was president. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the unemployment rate in the metropolitan statistical area that includes Bethlehem tracked closely with the national figure until early 2016 when it ticked upward — in part a function of people returning to the workforce.
That question, and Messina’s argument, implies the economy will be a central pitch of Trump’s in the 2020 election. It’s not clear that will be the case. Shortly before the election, we looked at two conflicting metrics that suggested very different results in the House contests. Both of those things couldn’t be true. The Republicans couldn’t both fare decently because of the healthy economy and terribly because of the unpopular president.
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