Analysis: The NFL offseason is a wonderful time to start looking at season-long wagers. That may seem daunting in June, but the sports books dish us an assist by providing so many options this long before the season begins.
, yet the numbers still lean toward Washington winning seven or more games in 2023. By my estimates, the fair value for over 6½ wins is -138, and yet you can find prices of -120 at a few different shops.
Figuring out a team’s chances to win the division is a simple extension of estimating a team’s win total. You simply simulate the season thousands of times — which, yes, requires programming skills — and log each team’s win total in each simulation, comparing it to the other teams in the division. Then you keep track of how often each team wins the division — and compare that to the odds offered. In the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins win 10 games on average, one fewer than the Bills.
Of course, the probabilities generated from this method are only as good as the DraftKings point spreads in the first place. Last year,identified value in bets on the Bills to win the AFC East, which they did. But the point spreads also implied value in the Colts and Titans to win the AFC South, and the Cardinals to make the playoffs; all three teams were disappointments.
To give one last example, running those same simulations using preseason point spreads can tell us how likely a squad is to be the last remaining undefeated team. As you might expect, the top three candidates to be the last undefeated team are the Bills , Chiefs and Bengals . Yet you can find the Bills at +1000 to be the last undefeated team at some sportsbooks, a nice premium over their fair-value odds of +710. The Detroit Lions are also worthy of consideration.
Like any bet, it pays to do additional research and shop around for the best price. You also have to weigh the return against the opportunity cost of tying part of your bankroll up for the next few months, since the season — and these bets — won’t conclude for more than six months. Still, the preseason betting market is softer than it is during the regular season and a prime time to add positive expectation bets to your portfolio.
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