Analysis: Inflation, budget risks await Polish vote winner

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Analysis: Inflation, budget risks await Polish vote winner
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Less than three weeks ahead of Poland's hotly contested general election, Warsaw pensioner Jadwiga Buczek is feeling better about a cost of living crisis which, for the past two years, has hit central Europeans harder than most.

"Let me tell you, there was a time when I couldn't even afford to buy salmon, for example. And now I'll go and buy myself a piece of salmon and have it at least once a week," Buczek told Reuters of a favourite treat.

Now, PiS and its rivals are vying to outdo each other with promises of even more generous spending - meaning that whoever wins themust pick up the tab for policies that risk fanning inflation and straining the state budget. While such welfare supports are modest compared to those in western Europe, the concern is that they could hinder efforts to lower inflation which reached a"The new fiscal measures and a sizeable increase of the minimum wage in 2024 are expected to increase core inflation pressures," said the European Commission this month as it forecast 2024 inflation at 6.1%, double the central bank target of 2.5%.

NBP Governor Adam Glapinski defended the move, saying that a retreat in inflation allowed for the cut and those surprised by the move - which included all the economists polled by Reuters before the decision - were "simply wrong."Regardless of who wins on Oct. 15, credit rating agencies believe that pledges of higher social outlays will be hard to reverse, raising deeper questions over public finances.

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