Abu Mohammad al-Jolani's and his Islamic militant group Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham have reinvigorated the rebellion against Syria's Bashar al-Assad.
An anti-government fighter tears down a portrait of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo, after jihadists and their allies entered the northern Syrian city, on Nov. 30, 2024., also known as HTS, began with attacks last Wednesday against government forces in northwestern Syria. By Saturday, the militants had gained control of Aleppo — Syria’s second largest city — and had pushed south to Hama, a major city on the highway south to Damascus.
As HTS advanced, government forces in some areas fled in panic, although the rebels appear to have encountered resistance in Hama. Clashes were soon reported in other areas of Syria, in the southern city of Deraa and even within Damascus itself, although it was unclear who was fighting, or why. This reporter was able to contact a friend in Damascus on Saturday evening, who could only confirm there was fighting in the city.
Some commentators have been quick to compare HTS’ lightning offensive to the Islamic State’s sweep across Syria and Iraq in 2014. But experts say the group is not the Islamic State 2.0. Al-Jolani took issue with al-Baghdadi’s efforts to co-opt the Nusra Front, saying ISI should confine its activities to Iraq.
Al-Baghdadi’s forces descended on the cradle of civilization spanning Syria and Iraq, capturing key cities along the Euphrates and Tigris river corridors, as Iraqi security forces evaporated before it and the Syrian military was brought to the brink of collapse. In June 2014, al-Baghdadi declared the establishment of the Islamic State from a mosque in Mosul, naming himself caliph of all Muslims. At its peak in 2015, the caliphate controlled almost half of Syria and one-third of Iraq.
That same year saw the defeat of the Islamic State. Iraqi and U.S. forces liberated Mosul, the last significant city held by the Islamic State in Iraq, while Russian air power, Shia militias, and government forces rolled back their gains across Syria and Kurdish-led fighters captured Raqqa, the caliphate’s capital. The caliph became the focus of an international manhunt.
“It’s not the clarity of his vision that has drawn him support from the Syrians who are ideologically aligned. It’s his organizational capacity,” notes Cafarella. The next step was making that clear to foreign powers. HTS began cultivating ties with Turkey, while maintaining independence from the Syrian National Army, the umbrella group of rebel militias directly trained, armed, and controlled by the Turkish government. It also began to publicize its ideology and goals.
Despite its focus on Syria, it would be a mistake to view HTS as moderate, Nasr says. “They are Islamist insurgents, and they want to install sharia law.” “We are not in 2015 any more. The Russians used to have 40 aircraft. Now they have perhaps 10. They are taking action according to their capacity,” Nasr says, adding that he is skeptical Iran can provide aid in the short term. “The Israelis hit Hezbollah so hard, and the Americans are hitting Iran’s proxies in the east. It would be quite surprising to see them able to rebuild.”
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