A trade deal won't save the world's largest economies from slowdowns this year
Hunter sees reported commitments made in negotiations, including reducing the US-China trade deficit, as unlikely to add up to much in the short term.
There may be some scope to increase exports of goods like aircraft and motor vehicles, he said, but agricultural or energy commodities are clearly subject to greater supply constraints. Global trade relationships have also shifted since last year, so any major production changes would take time. It's unclear if or when duties will be removed. With little evidence of progress on structural issues, Trump told reporters this week that he was in"no rush" to make a deal with China. On Thursday,that a summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping appears likely to take place in April.
The worst may be yet to come in the trade war, according to Li Zeng, an economist at UBS. Chinese exports mostly held up through the end of 2018, but that could change as frontloading wanes and as businesses relocate production to other countries. "This year, however, while the positive progress in the trade talks has given the market sentiment a big boost, we expect the real damage from the trade war to continue to manifest itself," Zeng said.
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