Trump leads in the early states, but Haley shows signs of strength.
, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley doesn't look all that strong. As of Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern, she has only 7 percent support in 538's national polling average. But parties don't pick their presidential nominees using national primaries, so those national numbers don't give us a complete picture of the race.
For that, you need to look at state polls. That's why 538 is pleased to announce that we're unveiling polling averages for individual Republican state caucuses and primaries, which begin just a few short months from now in snowy Iowa and New Hampshire. And our state-level averages reveal that candidates such as Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and South Carolina Sen.
That said, let's not miss the forest for the trees: Former President Donald Trump still has a dominant lead in these early states — almost as big as his lead nationally. So it's still very possible that the 2024 Republican nomination won't be much of a contest.look pretty similar to the national polls. According to our average, Trump is in first place with 49 percent support, followed distantly by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 17 percent.
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