With Republicans poised to control both houses of Congress, Democrats are focusing on state-level elections as a key battleground against a potential second Trump presidency. The 2025 and 2026 gubernatorial races, particularly in states like Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, and New York, are expected to be highly competitive and provide insights into Trump's continued influence.
, and Republicans are set to hold House and Senate majorities. So, Democrats are looking to the states as a key element of updated “resistance” plans against Trump in his second, nonconsecutive presidential term.
Here are key points about those 2025 and 2026 governor races to watch for. With the eternal caveat that nothing in politics is permanent. Races that look like political dogfights now may end up as electoral romps for one side or the other. While plenty more competitive governors’ contests could very well still emerge.Gov. Phil Murphy must leave office due to state term limits. New Jersey has been a blue state for years.
The Virginia governor’s race will show if Trump is a help, hindrance, or something in between for downballot Republican candidates. During the first year of Trump’s first term, in 2017, Ralph Northam won the governor’s race by 9 points, which was the strongest Democratic performance in decades. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist both look likely to run. Many others are also eyeing the contest as Democrats aim to win their third gubernatorial race in a row. One unknown political factor is Biden administration Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a former South Bend, Indiana, mayor who sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Buttigieg in 2022 changed his residence to Michigan, his husband’s home state.
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