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invaded in the early morning of Feb. 24, 2022, Russian and Western analysts expected a quick collapse of Ukrainian forces. After fierce initial resistance and unprecedented Western sanctions against Moscow, these expectations switched to the quick collapse of the Russian economy and military.
Panicked and contradictory reports began emerging out of Ukraine as the Russian military rapidly advanced along four axes — one from Belarus targeting Kyiv, one from the northeast targeting Kharkiv and Sumy, one from the east targeting the Donbas region, and one from Crimea targeting the south. A few major developments shifted the war in Ukraine’s favor. In June, U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, a mobile missile launcher, began arriving in Ukraine. Combined with NATO intelligence, these satellite-guided rockets were able to precisely strike Russian ammo depots, command and control centers, and other vital positions, greatly impeding Russia’s progress.
The battle also saw the growing importance of small, mass-produced drones, with videos of operators hunting down individual troops flooding social media. After two months of unease, Prigozhin and other Wagner heads were killed when their plane was rocked by an explosion and crashed, allegedly the doing of Russian intelligence. Despite the shock, Russia’s political establishment seemingly emerged unharmed, with no other major threats against its power since.
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