8 billion souls in 2100, two billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published Wednesday that foresees new global power alignments shaped by declining fertility rates and greying populations.
"However, most countries outside of Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy." As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under five is forecast to decline by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, the study found.
These tectonic shifts will also reshuffle the pecking order in terms of economic clout, the researchers forecast.By 2050, China's gross domestic product will overtake that of the United States, but fall back into second place by 2100, they predict. "By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States the dominant powers," said Richard Horton, describing the study as outlining "radical shifts in geopolitical power."
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