Why is the Covid-19 mortality rate so high in the Western Cape?

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Altitude plays a role, as do UV radiation levels and the weather, write Daniel Uys and Schalk van der Merwe

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Daniel Uys and Schalk van der MerweSince the start of the Covid-19 pandemic at the end of 2019 there has been much speculation about whether the impact of the coronavirus varies at different altitudes. Currently, the mortality per million people in the Western Cape is 279.5. This is 19 times higher than the mortality per million people in Gauteng.

The US is currently one of the countries hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Most major cities in the US are at sea level, or near navigable rivers. If the weighted average altitudes of the five largest cities in each of the 52 states are compared to the number of deaths per hundred thousand people in each of the states, the scatter plot indicates that at altitudes higher than 300m the mortality rate is significantly lower.

If altitude and UV radiation do play a role, the mortality rates of the inland provinces may continue to be lower than those of the coastal provinces Altitude and UV radiation are, of course, not the only factors influencing mortality, but within the SA context it could explain why the Western Cape has a higher mortality rate than the rest of the country. The general belief in SA is that the mortality rate in the Western Cape is higher because the province is “ahead” of other provinces on the inevitable upward surge of infections. This implies that other provinces will catch up in terms of mortality rates in the coming months.

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