SIMON BROWN: I’m chatting now with Dr Christie Viljoen, PwC economist. Christie, I appreciate the time this morning. Your report came out looking forward to 2022. I must say I thoroughly enjoy these reports, I’m that sort of a nerd. When I read it, it kind of struck me that it’s not doom and gloom. It’s also not excellent, booming; it’s kind of a little bit ‘middling’, which is in some ways a bit disappointing.
At the same time we’re sitting with challenges like rising unemployment and load shedding. So it’s that balance of good and bad news that’s a sobering reflection of what 2022 could look like – where we are looking and hoping for good news but we are still facing a bunch of challenges. So yes, the 2.6% number looks relatively good and I think for households it’s obviously good news. The problem is just that households are facing an uphill battle when it comes to quite a few things. We know that inflation has been elevated recently. We know that the Monetary Policy Committee, the MPC, is sitting at the moment, and tomorrow afternoon they’ll probably tell us interest rates are moving higher again. We know the petrol price was at R20/litre recently. So that 2.
We’re going to get an updated guidance from the Reserve Bank by tomorrow. That will give us a better idea of what’s happening, but most certainly interest rates [will be] rising over the next year or two. It’s not necessarily in response to inflation, it’s more a case of we need to get back to where we were in 2019. Part of getting the economy back to where it was is also moving interest rates back to where they were. That’s their primary driver.
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