If ever there was a time for fixed-income portfolios then 2020 is it. After racing out of the starting blocks at a frenzied pace, it seems likely that the next year will be remembered for the sheer range of momentous events that loom on the horizon.
In China, the coronavirus is causing havoc with trade. The high virulence of Covid-19, combined with uncertainty about the reporting accuracy of the rate of infection and mortality, is becoming a notable concern for global health officials.
There have also been some glimmers of hope. Local inflation continues to be low and the last print surprised on the downside. This allowed the Reserve Bank to cut rates, and it is widely expected that the Bank will make at least one more cut over the next 12 months. Cash-plus portfolios are thus unlikely to deliver the CPI+4% in future that they have for the past few years, but one can still expect returns in the 7.5%-8% range for 2020.
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