WAR IN EUROPE OP-ED: The Monkey and the Grenade: How the crisis in Ukraine ends

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Unlike South Africa, Ukraine’s basic services keep functioning despite it being in the midst of an all-out war. The power stays on and the trains keep running, whatever the Russians throw at them. There are huge tailbacks at the borders, but this ...

More than anything, it is this sense of patriotism and resourcefulness – and a little bit of help from Ukraine’s friends – that is likely to determine the war’s outcome.

I have driven through more than 3,500km of Ukraine north to south over the past three months: there is scarcely a building without Ukrainian flags, banners, posters and painted walls.The presence of such nationalism, shaped by the anvil of conflict and genocide under the Holodomor perpetrated by Stalin in the 1930s – in which millions of Ukrainians died of starvation due to the confiscation of their wheat – reduces the scenario options.

This outcome is not entirely down to Nato assistance, of course, but depends also on Russia’s economic and military strength. To some extent, the outcome depends on how the region works with Ukraine to get its trade routes for its commodities back up and running, including through Moldova, Romania and Poland especially.

 

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