US election-related bets suggest a delayed result, JPMorgan says

Singapore —

Pricing for volatility protection in interest rates — where investors trade and hedge bond exposure through various derivatives — is “very high relative to the same stage in previous cycles,” strategists led by Joshua Younger said in a note published on Tuesday.

The positioning in rates and credit mirrors some signs of unease in the equity market, where one popular trade involving futures tied to the Cboe’s Volatility Index shows investors now paying a record volatility premium around the time of the US election on November 3. One market that doesn’t appear to be paying-up for volatility protection is currencies, the analysts added. Volatility pricing on major currency pairs shows “complacent” positioning around the election, which may make currency trading a cheaper way of hedging political risk compared to rates, credit or stocks.

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