The final 2020 presidential debate is officially in the books, which means we're now in the home stretch of the campaign. With 10 days to go, as of Saturday morning, the race appears to be Joe Biden's to lose.
A few things: The first is that the polls can be off, especially in key states where methods are less refined, surveys less frequent and voters more unpredictable. But as The Washington Post's Philip Bump wrote earlier this month, they'd need to be even more wrong than in 2016, by virtue of Trump's larger deficit. What's more, the polls were arguably even more flawed in 2012, but in the opposite direction.
Data nationally and in some of these states indicate that these early votes have a significant and in some cases very strong Democratic lean, given that Democrats have embraced mail-in voting much more than Republicans. In North Carolina, the ballots cast are 42 percent Democratic and 29 percent Republican. In Florida, the Democrats' edge is 44 percent to 35 percent. In Arizona, it's 41 percent to 35 percent.
Trump made his comeback four years ago in large part because he won over voters who were undecided or flirting with third-party candidates. The RealClearPolitics polling average at this point had Clinton ahead 44.9 percent to 41 percent when third-party candidates were included and 47.2 percent to 42.5 percent they were excluded. That's as much as 14 percent of voters who hadn't fully committed to either major-party candidate who could be swayed in the final days.
One of the undersold aspects of the 2020 race is that Biden is nowhere near Clinton's level of unpopularity, which by Election Day 2016 rivaled Trump's. And in fact, he actually has become more popular as the race has worn on - something that would've seemed pretty inconceivable early on and especially in our current political climate.
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