The real water crisis: Not understanding what’s needed

provinces has seen a number of small towns threatened by total water supply failures and livestock farmers facing financial ruin.

In Cape Town, water managers thought they could avoid building new infrastructure to supply a growing population by encouraging everyone to use less water. A majorDuring October’s heatwaves in Gauteng province, water ran dry as local reservoirs were emptied by residents who felt the need to use extra water for their gardens – and municipalities failed to enforce restrictions.reported

said while summer rains would be late and October very dry, November would almost definitely see good rains.But South Africans shouldn’t expect that forecasting success to continue. It’s unusual for a seasonal forecast to be so confident. As the first set of maps below shows, the predictions for the three months starting in November were very confident compared with the second set of maps which offered virtually no “skilful guidance” for the three months starting in September. South African Weather Service

The combination of forecast uncertainties and problems on the ground offers politicians an easy opportunity to blame climate change and uncertainty to explain failures in their areas of responsibility.

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