SA’s vision of a thriving agricultural sector

In 2012 the National Development Plan identified many opportunities for agriculture which, if exploited equitably, could be the engine of inclusive growth in many of SA’s less developed rural areas.

Our food system combines diverse value chains with a wide spectrum of producers linking to a range of formalised and sophisticated markets on the one extreme, and informal markets on the other. Efforts are now required to reduce the persistent dualism in the sector, driving development and enabling a diverse range of primary producers and value chain operators to flourish.

The master plan identifies various cross-cutting preconditions and value chain-specific interventions and reforms. Simulations suggest successful implementation could increase real agricultural GDP by 14% above baseline projections by 2030.

expects further growth of 7.6% in real agricultural GDP in 2021, underpinned by a bumper harvest for most important crops, sold at high prices, and record exports of most important fruit categories. However, growth projections for the coming decade are balanced on a knife’s edge. Domestic consumption growth is expected to slow due to weaker spending power; thus production growth will rely on expanded exports. The animal health system, an essential precondition to achieve this, is currently inefficient in managing disease outbreaks, which hampers productivity and limits export opportunities.

Investments that improve transport efficiency and port logistics will also support the competitive, export-orientated horticultural sector. Export orientation make this sector less sensitive to domestic spending constraints and it is reaping the rewards of more than a decade of investment.

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