South Africa’s inflation rate moved closer to the top of the central bank’s target range in December, highlighting the difficult choice between taming price growth and supporting a sluggish economy policy makers will face when deciding on interest rates next week. The annual inflation rate rose to a near five-year high of 5.9%, compared with 5.5% in November, Statistics South Africa said Wednesday in a statement on its website. The median of 19 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey was 5.
The Reserve Bank could pause the hiking cycle this month to support an economy reeling from the fallout of a fourth wave of coronavirus infections. Economists predict international travel bans, imposed on South Africa after its discovery of the omicron variant, risk stalling the country’s economic recovery. Forward-rate agreements starting in one month, used to speculate on borrowing costs, signal traders are pricing in a full quarter-point increase in the repurchase rate on January 27.
At least a 25 basis point interest rate hike next week, 50 basis points very likely
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