ROB ROSE: Smart money braces for stage 8

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Those who invest South Africa’s pension savings are reading the tea leaves very differently to our politicians, who’ve shown little inclination to make reality their friend, writes robrose_za.

Investment pundits are no oracles, obviously. But with their fortunes on the line, their instincts are often an accurate leading indicator of where stress lies in the economy.monthly survey of South Africa’s fund managers, released this week, is so alarming. completed by 14 local fund managers between April 6 and 13, reveals that they expect load-shedding to peak at between stage 7 and 8 this winter.

The fund managers are far less optimistic. The survey shows they believe the time frame for eliminating load-shedding, through64% of the fund managers do not see “an operational solution” to Transnet’s woes in the next two years — a finding roughly in line with the 65% who felt there was no such solution to Eskom. In other words, without any private-public partnership, or lightning bolt from the god of logistics, we’re stuck.

“It’s the inability to keep up with the maintenance schedule, as well as the unplanned outages. The open cycle gas turbines are not designed to run 24/7, so with the best will in the world, people can’t keep up — it’s an avalanche,” he says. The imperative to rebuild trust is also vital if President Cyril Ramaphosa hopes to come close to hitting his lofty plan to woo R2-trillion in investment over the next five years. has held an annual investor conference at Sun City for many years, which it resumed in March after a three-year Covid-induced hiatus. This time, about 300 people attended, and of the fund managers who arrived, about 45% were from overseas firms.

 

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