with detailed data related to climate change for all member countries. The data shows that climate change will start to affect economies in just 15 years time. The risks will be lower if the targets in the Paris Agreement are met, but the analysis reveals that with slow action and in a more “extreme scenario”, the world could take an 18% economic hit by 2050.
South Africa’s GDP is estimated to fall by about 7% by 2050, even if temperature rise is limited to well below 2°C. In a severe scenario, where warming reaches 3.5°C degrees, South Africa will lose 23.5% of its GDP value. The health sector is also set to be heavily affected as temperature rise continues.
“Swiss Re here details the costs of inaction, and how they already begin to hit home,” said Dr Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University. Climate change affects economies systemically through physical and transition risks. Physical risks can include property damage and disruption to trade due to climate shocks. Transition risks arise from the adjustment to a low-carbon economy.
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