Phasing out lockdown requires focus on trade-offs, fears and trust

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Even if effectively implemented, economic support measures will not offset socio-economic costs incurred

A man walks in empty streets in Johannesburg on the first day of the 21-day lockdown. Picture: THAPELO MOREBUDI

Generally, how well countries fare after Covid-19 will be determined by how quickly their economies and societies recover from their respective lockdowns. As winter comes to SA the widespread business failures and mounting job losses in the country are worrying, more so because of the emerging humanitarian crisis.

We are in great danger of losing our grip on reality, particularly if we expect strict adherence to often questionable lockdown rules in a country in which the socio-economic preconditions were already very weak. The general restriction on liquor sales was explained on the grounds that the number of alcohol-related crimes declined, which freed up hospital resources. The tobacco ban continues, with its own controversial rationale. And the overall lockdown was claimed to be justified because it helped reduce road accidents.

The lockdown in SA has also revealed how much human activity and society as a whole depend on those imperfect and much-maligned “market forces” that underpin the economy. The lockdown has demonstrated what happens when these forces are disrupted and income streams, however minimal, dry up.

 

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