PETER APPS: Ukraine war leaves all sides believing they can win more than they have

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Will that push Russia ever closer to the use of chemical, biological or small-scale nuclear weapons?

Russian President Vladimir Putin signs the distinguished visitors' book in an assembly and test facility at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Region, Russia, on April 12 2022. Picture: KREMLIN via REUTERS/SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEVAbout 16km inside Russia at a military base near the village of Golovchino, dozens of damaged, burnt and blasted Russian armoured vehicles have been dragged into scattergun positions as workers attempt to repair and salvage spares.

Like all major military conflicts, the Ukraine war is becoming an economic, technological and industrial confrontation, one with actions and implications escalating well beyond Ukraine. The global consequences of war, meanwhile, are escalating — particularly through the economic effects of rising food and fuel prices. With Russia bombing its railways and targeting agricultural infrastructure, Ukraine must bring in and export one of the world’s largest grain harvests between now and September.This week, the World Bank said the Ukraine war had delivered the largest commodity price shocks since the 1970s.

That may get even worse if Ukraine cannot get its harvest in the summer, or if blocked exports and overfilled silos mean it cannot be stored. In March, the World Bank predicted the Ukrainian economy to shrink by as much as 45%, while even Kremlin-owned state media predict a Russian economic contraction of 10% or more.

Earlier in April, one US official told the Washington Post it was possible Ukraine now has more working tanks in service than Russia. The authorities in Kyiv, however, want more to push back Moscow in the Donbas, one of the reasons Germany’s willingness to provide Gepard tanks and anti-aircraft weaponry is so important.

Other kit, however, is being rushed out. On April 21, the Pentagon announced a new $800m support package would include a “loitering munitions” kamikaze drone dubbed “Phoenix Ghost” specifically developed by the US military for Ukraine in recent weeks. It did not provide further details, but other unmanned vehicles reportedly earmarked for first use in Ukraine include unmanned maritime vehicles previously unused in combat.

 

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