In my 40 years of observing and participating in financial markets, I have learned that August is always a month to watch. It is the harbinger of the fall, and for whatever reason, that season has featured some of the most tumultuous moments in financial history, from the Wall Street crashes of 1929 and 1987 to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian default, and, of course, the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
There are plenty of reasons to think that the late summer and fall of 2020 will match or exceed the chaos of these previous episodes. For example, imagine if Covid-19 infection rates across Europe were to start spiking again, as they have in the United States and other pandemic hotspots around the world. That would trigger renewed lockdowns and place even more pressure on those working toward a vaccine.
Moreover, no worst-case scenario can leave out US President Donald Trump, who is growing desperate in the face of rising infections and falling poll numbers. Imagine that Trump were to lash out at China even more aggressively, heaping on additional import tariffs, banning entire categories of Chinese goods and services, blocking US investments in China, and so forth. Needless to say, the implications for the global economy would be grim.
But consider a less frightening alternative. The constant “drip-drip” of the crisis, amplified by nonstop social media, should force more governments to get serious about containing Covid-19 outbreaks and ramping up testing capacity, contact tracing, and production of personal protective equipment. This pattern emerged early in several Asian countries – China, Singapore, South Korea, and most recently Vietnam – and is now discernible in Europe. Even the United Kingdom, after dithering through the earlier stages of the pandemic, has significantly improved its response.
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