that the stock market reacts negatively to his tariff threats, that trade-related uncertainty weakens growth, and this damages his reelection prospects.
Fed officials should also emphasize that monetary loosening cannot fully neutralize the effects of trade-policy uncertainty. Many investments, once undertaken, are reversible only with difficulty, to the extent that they’re reversible at all. Investments predicated on the existence of global supply chains will be rendered worthless by a full-blown trade war.
But Fed policies do influence elections, and this indisputable fact has consequences for the central bank. Policy-rate reductions that head off an impending recession make Trump’s re-election more likely. In turn, his reelection implies slower growth in the medium term, insofar as it means continued erratic policies, commercial conflict, and uncertainty.
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