Opec faces balancing act in warding off taper tantrum while unwinding stimulus

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As fuel demand recovers due to lockdowns lifting, producers are about to ease open taps

OPEC logo is pictured ahead of an informal meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algiers, Algeria. File Picture: REUTERS/RAMZI BOUDINASaudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman likes the idea of Opec+ acting as the central bank of oil. And he expresses admiration for Alan Greenspan, former chair of the US Federal Reserve.

But as Greenspan’s successors discovered seven years ago, taking away the punch bowl carries its own risks. It’s a balancing act that Abdulaziz and his counterparts must weigh on July 15, when they hold an online meeting of the joint ministerial monitoring committee , the panel that reviews Opec+’s progress.The JMMC will consider whether the 23-nation alliance should keep 9.6-million barrels of daily output off the market for another month, or restore some supplies as originally planned, tapering the cutback to 7.7-million barrels.

Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said on July 2 that no position on an extension had been taken yet, but stressed that it’s better if Opec+ sticks to its previous decisions. The acceleration of the pandemic in the US, where infections hit a record last week, and its reemergence in Asia is “casting a shadow over the outlook”, the International Energy Agency warned in a report on Friday. The Paris-based agency advises major economies on energy policy.

 

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