Demographic trends can be glacial, but no less crushing and even the slightest acceleration is alarming.
China’s acute problem is peculiarly home-grown of course and the abandonment of its decades-old “one-child policy” in 2016 has done little to stall the demographic juggernaut yet. Like so many other economic statistics, Covid-19 may have distorted these relatively slow-moving trends only temporarily. Citing data from a variety of sources from the World Bank, UN to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development , the bank showed that fertility in 75 countries was already well below the 2.1 so-called “replacement rate” and would be less than 2 globally by the end of the century.
Whether this apparent disillusionment with work survives the pandemic is uncertain. It's also unclear whether the “baby bust” in many countries during lockdowns was temporary and may be quickly correct itself to pre-2020 levels as life returns to normal. But they both amplify the demographic trend right now.
But recently some economists argue that worker shortages in future will afford labour greater bargaining power and bid up wages and inflation over time — something we're getting a glimpse of amid all the pandemic distortions right now.
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