ISS TODAY: Can the peace-trade equation stabilise the Horn?

The launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area on 7 July at the African Union summit in Niamey, Niger, has created the largest free trade zone in the world for 1.2-billion people with a gross domestic product ofNiger’s President Mahamadou Issoufou hailed the AfCFTA as “the greatest historical event for the African continent since the creation of the Organisation of African Unity in 1963”.

Except for Eritrea, all the countries in the Horn have signed the agreement. The region’s geo-politics, including the securitisation of borders, political instability, illicit cross-border trade and, as well as underdeveloped infrastructure and human capital, are the main challenges. The Eritrea-Djibouti border has also been closed since 2008 as a result of a border dispute between the two countries. Although their leaders met briefly in September 2018 and promised to resume relations, trade between the two nations seems unlikely soon.

Other high-value export commodities, such as gold, Khat, charcoal and sugar, are also illegally traded along these borders. Revenue from such trading has been used to finance armed groups. Trafficking in small arms and light weapons is prevalent along the Ethiopia-Sudan border. Large-scale contrabandundermines legitimate cross-border commerce, especially the security of small to medium-scale traders.

Recognising these challenges, AU Commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat said in Niamey that it would be a “delusion to talk of trade and development without peace and security”. While true, the statement represents only half of the peace-trade equation. The “chicken and egg” relationship between peace and trade means that as much as peace is needed to boost trade, so too is trade an ingredient for establishing and sustaining peace.

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