How a recession could put the kibosh on Trump’s re-election

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Donald Trump has been riding on the coat-tails of a strong economy with almost zero unemployment; a recession would undo all of that

Economic trends tend to predict election outcomes, and recessions can be kryptonite for the party in powerU.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an event at the Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex in Monaca, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2019. Picture: JUSTIN MERRIMAN / BLOOMBERG

However, this week, fears of a broader downturn arose. The S&P 500 sank almost 3% on Wednesday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 800 points in its worst rout of the year, sparked when the 10-year US treasury rate slid below the two-year for the first time since 2007, a harbinger of a possible downturn.

At least one Democrat took notice of the signs. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who posted a blog on Medium in July about the economic slowdown, tweeted on Wednesday that “the warning signs for another recession are flashing. We need to pay attention and act now, while we still have time to avert a downturn”.

Before the markets closed, Trump tried to deflect any blame for the economic news by turning it on the Fede’s interest-rate increases, venting about the ‘CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!’ in a tweet Before the markets closed, Trump tried to deflect any blame for the economic news by turning it on the Fede’s interest-rate increases, venting about the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!” in a tweet on Wednesday, blaming it on the central bank’s interest rate increases.

Economists worry this weakness will take a toll on what’s been the American economy’s bright spot — the job market.

 

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