Heatwaves in much of South Africa are occurring more frequently and are expected to last longer - over two weeks in rare circumstances - and to become more intense.
While heatwaves have been extensively studied in continental Europe and Australia, they “have not received rigorous research attention in SA, even though they have devastating impacts on society and livelihoods”. “We found that the 30-year period average maximum temperatures may rise by up to 6°C across much of the interior of South Africa by 2070-2099 with respect to 1983-2012 under a high GHG concentration.”
Heatwaves are also expected to last longer, particularly across the interior, and become more intense, which the authors say is in agreement with earlier findings about the nature of heatwaves in the 21st century. The north-western parts of the country are expected to have the most drastic increase in heatwave occurrences.
However, the coasts will continue to experience heatwaves of relatively shorter duration compared with interior regions. Winter heatwaves are expected to extend to the eastern interior and to also increase in intensity reaching over 47°C/30-year.Climate change is causing extreme heat events in sub-Saharan Africa but official records suggest they are not happening, despite the region being a “literal hot spot for heatwave activity”.
“Their requirement is that one of the following criteria be met: 1) 10 or more people that die due to the event, or 2) 100 or more people affected, 3) a declaration of a state of emergency and 4) a call for international assistance
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