But ITC’s research finds some governments around the world reacted by imposing trade restrictions in the hope that this would increase access to food and essential goods for their citizens. Export bans and other restrictions now cover 73% of global trade in pandemic-related goods such as PPE and cleaning products.
Together, China, the EU and the US are responsible for 63% of world supply-chain imports; and 64% of supply-chain exports and lockdowns in these three economies have accounted for the lion’s share of global disruption to manufacturing inputs. ITC estimates the amount of this disruption could be as high as $126bn.
ITC’s analysis suggests effects in global regions may be driven by just a few product lines and in a small number of countries. For instance, Morocco’s losses in exports of wiring sets for vehicles to the EU are projected at close to $300m — a sizeable 15% to 20% of Africa’s entire exports to the EU.Sometimes, reduced demand in value chains takes the form of lead firms not paying suppliers or cancelling existing contracts, often causing significant hardship on businesses in developing countries.
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